WRC 2024: Neuville vs Tänak – A battle for the crown

As the 2024 World Rally Championship (WRC) season barrels towards its thrilling conclusion, the drivers’ standings are poised for an epic showdown. With just one round remaining – FORUM8 Rally Japan – Thierry Neuville of Hyundai Motorsport leads the championship, but his teammate Ott Tänak still holds a mathematical chance to steal the crown. The championship standings are razor-thin, with Thierry Neuville leading but still within striking distance of his Hyundai teammate, Ott Tänak. Thanks to WRC’s 2024 three-part points system, the battle for the Drivers’ World Championship will be decided over every stage of the rally weekend. Both drivers will need to bring their best across three days to clinch the title.

The battle so far: A season of momentum swings

Thierry Neuville has enjoyed one of his strongest seasons yet. With two rally wins under his belt and several podium finishes, the Belgian driver has displayed consistent form. His ability to balance aggression with precision has earned him a comfortable position atop the leaderboard. However, Ott Tänak has refused to be overshadowed. The Estonian ace, known for his fearless driving, has kept the fight alive with two victories as well as crucial top-five finishes throughout the season, narrowing the points gap in the latter half of the campaign.

At the end of the penultimate round in Central Europe, Neuville leads the championship with 225 points, while Tänak sits in second with 200 points. This 25-point difference gives Neuville the upper hand, but in WRC, no lead is ever secure – especially with a maximum of 30 points still up for grabs in Japan.

How points are earned in the 2024 WRC season (and set to change for 2025, thankfully!)

The 2024 WRC season introduced a new three-part points system, offering multiple ways for drivers, co-drivers, and manufacturers to accumulate points throughout each rally. These opportunities are spread across Saturday’s overall standings, Sunday’s leg performance, and the Power Stage.

1. Saturday’s overall standings: Points are awarded based on the cumulative standings by the end of Saturday’s stages. The top 10 drivers earn points in descending order—18 for first place, 15 for second, 13 for third, and so on, down to 1 point for tenth place. However, these points only count for competitors who successfully complete the rally and obtain a final classification.
2. Sunday’s leg performance: A separate set of points is allocated exclusively for the results from Sunday’s leg, the final day of the rally. Here, the top seven drivers are rewarded, with 7 points going to the best performer, 6 for second, 5 for third, and so on down to 1 point for seventh place.
3. The Power Stage: As in previous seasons, bonus points are available in the Power Stage, the final stage of the rally. The top five fastest drivers in this stage receive additional points—5 points for the fastest, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth, and 1 point for fifth.

These three scoring opportunities ensure that every stage counts and encourages drivers to push for maximum performance throughout the weekend. Whether they’re aiming for early success on Saturday, a comeback on Sunday, or bonus points in the Power Stage, this system keeps the competition alive at every rally.

Neuville vs Tänak: Head-to-head showdown

With only 25 points separating them,  Neuville and Tänak are set for a dramatic showdown in Rally Japan. They’ve both scored two rally wins this season and numerous podiums.

Neuville’s biggest strength is his consistency and technical precision, especially on tarmac surfaces, where his smooth, controlled driving style makes him difficult to beat. However, he tends to be more conservative on gravel, which can sometimes cost him time.

Tänak, on the other hand, is known for his fearless, aggressive approach, which thrives under pressure. While this style has won him key events, it also comes with the risk of mistakes. His performance on asphalt can be unpredictable – while capable of brilliance, he occasionally pushes too hard, leading to errors.

What each driver needs to do to win the championship

With 25 points separating Thierry Neuville and Ott Tänak, the championship outcome will be determined not only by the final rally standings but also by points earned on Saturday, Sunday, and the Power Stage. Both drivers must execute their strategies with precision to maximise every point opportunity. Here’s what each driver needs to do to secure the 2024 WRC title.

Thierry Neuville’s path to victory

Neuville can win the championship under the following scenarios:

• If he finishes within the top three on Saturday, earning valuable points to widen the gap over Tänak.
• If he secures a top-three finish on Sunday’s leg, while Tänak finishes lower, this will strengthen his title chances.
• Even if Tänak performs well, a strong Power Stage showing (4 or 5 bonus points) could give Neuville enough of a cushion to clinch the title.

Neuville’s safest bet is to obviously focus on staying in the top three throughout the weekend. If he finishes second or third on Saturday and grabs a few Power Stage points, he can reduce the risk of Tänak overtaking him in the standings. Maintaining a steady pace without unnecessary risks will be essential.

Daily goals for Neuville:

• Friday: Stay within the top three to set a competitive pace.
• Saturday: Secure as many points as possible to keep Tänak behind. A second or third-place finish would be ideal.
• Sunday: Target a top-three finish in the final leg and push hard in the Power Stage to claim bonus points if necessary. Even a couple of extra points could make the difference.

Ott Tänak’s route to the title

For Tänak, the path to the 2024 WRC title is narrower, but with smart driving and aggressive point-scoring, it’s still achievable. Here are the key scenarios that could see Tänak snatch the championship from Neuville:

• Tänak must win or finish second overall on Saturday to gain critical points and cut Neuville’s lead.
• On Sunday’s leg, he needs to outscore Neuville by placing in the top two, ideally winning the day.
• A Power Stage victory is essential to earn the full 5 bonus points, which could tip the balance in his favour if Neuville finishes outside the podium in any leg.
• If Neuville struggles to score well on either Saturday or Sunday, Tänak has a golden opportunity to turn the championship around.

Tänak’s best chance is to adopt an all-or-nothing approach, especially early in the rally. He must set the pace from Friday and push for victory in as many legs as possible to narrow the points gap. Rally Japan’s narrow asphalt roads demand precision, but Tänak’s aggressive driving style could work to his advantage if he finds the right rhythm. Every point will matter, so Tänak needs to dominate the Power Stage and hope Neuville slips under pressure.

Daily goals for Tänak:

• Friday: Set a blistering pace to lead early, putting psychological pressure on Neuville.
• Saturday: Aim for a first or second-place finish to close the points gap before Sunday.
• Sunday: Go all-out for a top finish and secure the maximum 5 bonus points in the Power Stage.

Tänak will need a flawless performance to have a shot at the title. If he wins Rally Japan and sweeps the Power Stage, the championship could swing in his favour—especially if Neuville struggles to keep up on either Saturday or Sunday. With a high-risk, high-reward strategy, Tänak has no room for error but plenty of potential to pull off a last-round miracle.

The FORUM8 Rally Japan: The deciding battlefield

Rally Japan will be a nerve-wracking affair, with 19 special stages covering 300 competitive kilometres across the mountains around Nagoya. The narrow tarmac roads require precision driving, with wet and slippery conditions a real possibility. Both Neuville and Tänak are capable on asphalt, but Neuville has a slight edge due to his smoother, controlled driving style. However, if Tänak can find the right rhythm early, his aggressive approach could pay dividends.

Guessing game: Who is likely to win?

Based on recent form and rally characteristics, Neuville enters Japan as the favourite. He has been the more consistent driver across tarmac events this season and will likely focus on controlling the rally from the front, knowing he doesn’t need to win outright to secure the championship.

However, Tänak is a dangerous opponent. If conditions favour him and he finds his flow early in the rally, the Estonian’s fearless driving could see him steal the spotlight. The rally’s narrow margins will leave no room for error, and a single puncture or spin could swing the championship in either direction.

Chances of victory for each driver

Sticking my neck out here a little, here are the odds:

• Neuville: 60%. His consistency and past performance on asphalt give him the edge, and he has the points advantage going into Japan.
• Tänak: 40%. Though an underdog, his aggressive style makes him a wildcard. If he stays mistake-free, he can force Neuville into uncomfortable situations.

A championship on the knife’s edge

The 2024 WRC season will come to a nail-biting conclusion in Japan, with Thierry Neuville and Ott Tänak locked in an intense battle for the crown. Neuville holds the upper hand, but Tänak’s relentless drive ensures this championship is far from over. Both drivers will leave nothing on the table, and with the unpredictable nature of WRC, anything can happen over three days of grueling rally action.

When the dust settles on Sunday’s Power Stage, one of these two titans will lift the championship trophy. Will it be Neuville, securing his first-ever world title after years of near-misses? Or will Tänak pull off a last-round miracle to claim his second WRC crown?

As fans, all we can do is buckle up and get ready for a thrilling finale – because in rallying, the story is never over until the final kilometre.